Round table | Perspectives on the Spanish economy: Towards a new growth model?

Session moderated by Xavier Vives, board member of the Cercle d’Economia

Carlos Cuerpo, Minister of Economy, Trade and Business
Juanjo Cano, President of KPMG Spain
Fina Lladós, Vice President and General Manager of Amgen Iberia and Chairwoman of Farmaindustria
Pau Relat, Chairman of the Board of Fira de Barcelona

Xavier Vives, board member of the Cercle d’Economia, spoke of a Spain that “is doing well,” with forecasts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the positive evolution of tourism activity, high value-added services, and productivity that “seems to be recovering” after a period of stagnation. “There are reasons to be optimistic,” he noted before handing over to the session.

In his opening remarks, the Minister of Economy, Trade and Business, Carlos Cuerpo, described an international context marked by “uncertainty, volatility, and increasing geoeconomic competition” that places Europe before a “historic opportunity” to assert its role as a key player in the new global order. “We have a clear roadmap, in the Draghi and Letta reports, that mark the direction to follow with a sense of urgency and unity of action,” adding that Europe’s response must combine “firm defense of its interests” with “a willingness to dialogue” and the “building of strategic alliances.” Also, “the completion of the internal market integration” and deeper strategic autonomy, innovation, and investment are necessary.

Regarding Spain, he described the current moment as “especially favorable” based on available data analysis, with growth forecasts revised upwards by the IMF for 2025 and a dynamism that, in his view, is based on a “balanced growth model, without the structural imbalances of the past.” He highlighted strong job creation, productivity improvement –“which must partly come from the growth of SMEs”– and public debt that has fallen more than 22 points since 2021, with a deficit below 3%.

The minister valued economic growth combined with “redistributive policies,” strengthening competitiveness, and regulatory simplification, from “stability, dynamism, and modernization” within the European project framework.

Productivity and added value: a view from services, pharma, and industry

In the round table, Juanjo Cano, president of KPMG Spain and from his perspective as a representative of a firm providing services to other companies and organizations, pointed out that attracting talent and fostering its development is “key” to contributing to competitiveness and added value in the productive fabric and, by extension, the Spanish economy, although he acknowledged that “the education system still has a lot of room for improvement.”

Fina Lladós, vice president and general manager of Amgen Iberia and chairwoman of Farmaindustria, argued that the biopharmaceutical sector is both a “key economic driver” – with a “strategic role” highlighted during the pandemic – and a source of scientific innovation that “grows exponentially,” but requires an “agile” regulatory environment and “long-term” policies. In her opinion, consolidating this ecosystem is “fundamental” for competitiveness and public health.

Pau Relat, chairman of the board of Fira de Barcelona, described an entity that “acts as an economic engine by promoting productive sectors in transformation and attracting strategic international events.” He referred to its objectives –“generate added value, consolidate business ecosystems and leave a legacy in the territory”– aiming to contribute to the economic model change through internationalization, innovation, and competitiveness.

Second Trump presidency and the key “factor” for competitiveness

When asked about business strategy to “navigate” the uncertainty linked to Donald Trump’s new term, Cano admitted that the “geopolitical factor and its derivatives cause investors to retreat.” Lladós expressed similar views, albeit with a specific nuance applicable to her sector: “Uncertainty paralyzes investment decisions. Prudence is needed and the repercussions of a possible trade war” in the pharmaceutical field should be valued. Relat opted to see the glass half full, balancing realism and pragmatism: “In the last fifteen years we have experienced permanent instability scenarios and had to adapt. We must accept that managing uncertainty will be part of our daily ecosystem.”

And one factor –“just one”– to prioritize to boost productivity and innovation in Spain?, Xavier Vives asked to conclude: public-private and private-private collaboration (Juanjo Cano); regulatory simplification (Fina Lladós); infrastructures “of all kinds” (Pau Relat); and trust (Carlos Cuerpo).